Living your Life as a True Activist?

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I believe that many people are living a life just for the sake of existence with no real purpose other than going with the flow or seeking an elusive happiness that never seems to materialize.

Have you ever thought about living your life as a true activist? What do you think this would entail?

Here are some personal thoughts.

As George Orwell once said: “Men can only be happy when they do not assume that the object of life is happiness.”

Well I believe we’re all here for a reason. There are many forces that would distract us and prevent us finding it. Seek your reason, and in doing so you will find consolation and purpose.

I’d suggest, by and large, society today is geared up to turn good people into bad. It’s a society run by bad people in favor of bad people; bad meaning the self centered and selfish. People are forced to tow the ridiculous, individualist, greed driven line in order to survive.

The metaphor I use is that of someone who’s in a hole in the ground. The hole is filling with water and they are bailing out the water just to stay alive. The bigger their wage, the bigger their cup. The problem is that no one is given the time to ask the very simple questions, ‘Why am I in this hole, who put me there?’. They’re just kept too busy bailing and become exhausted in the process.

Remember Tolstoy? “Money is the new form of slavery”.

A friend of mine refers to this as ‘the upside down world’. Such an observation of society’s contradiction is correct both in moral and practical terms. We are doomed in both respects as long as we keep believing the great lie which forms the basis of economic models around the world, that of ‘infinite growth.

If you’re interested in reading a very interesting work on the fundamentally flawed economic models used to keep us all captive and grind the Earth and its resources to dust, check out Professor Tim Jackson’s work entitled ‘Prosperity without Growth’.

Notably, the Sustainable Development Commission which commissioned and published this work was shut down in 2011. It’s stated aim was to ‘Hold government to account to ensure the needs of society, the economy and the environment were properly balanced in the decisions it made and the way it ran itself’. It was axed as part of the coalition spending cuts enforced upon the people to pay the price of the banking industry’s excess.

As mentioned above in ‘the hole dilemma’, if people had the time to stop and think how their society has been butchered by the greed driven power politics of big business, and the consequential harm to society and social services, I suspect a great many politicians would need to put their running shoes on…

Thomas Jefferson summed up and warned of our society today nearly 100 years ago. I believe it is applicable to all, if not the vast majority, of nations.

“And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”

In short, we are governed by the morally bankrupt and criminally corrupt. Though I am of no specific religious denomination, I pray to all and any deities that one day we find the strength to stand up and put an end to this horror.

I would also add that to my mind the idea of nations is as primitive as stone age tribal thinking and that patriotism is just nationalism by another name. We are one planet, there is no disputing that. What harms one harms us all. What helps one helps us all. The universal bond that connects us is one that cannot be broken and should not be allowed to be degraded by the politically motivated manufactured consensus based on an ideological madness.

All I can say is hold on, be strong, start contributing by educating your fellow citizens, live your life like a true activist. Change is coming.

You don’t need to change anything external like your behavior or your circumstances. You don’t need to have “worth” to society. If you want peace of mind and happiness, you must change the way you perceive your world and start doing something about it.

A person’s contribution doesn’t need to be grand or even positive, as long as we’re not stuck in solitary confinement our actions and behavior will contribute. I’ve learned and benefited from all levels of society in many countries. Lawyers have taught me, beggars have taught me, doctors have taught me and other species have taught me – everything and everybody has in some way affected and raised my awareness.

I live to cut through, endure and learn from the suffering and pain because it’s so very worth it to experience what comes as a result. I realize that for some, suffering consumes the majority of their lives and may well be inescapable. In that case it becomes an individual’s choice whether or not to continue. This is an ecosystem, it isn’t fair or intrinsically purposeful, life is a struggle with intermittent rewards.

So I say, struggle and find your rewards, use all your wits and resources to glimpse those fleeting moments of joy, share your life with others, share the struggle and the joy, bite the bullet and see if you can outsmart the system. Keep doing it, learn and fight, bite and scratch for your piece of the cake. Find solace in whichever form works for you, understand the sharks you swim with.

Life isn’t pretty but by living your life as a true activist you do create an enormous ripple effect no matter who you are.

Share your thoughts.

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Wealth Takers v/s Wealth Creators Some food for thought

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The natural state of our economy is prosperity. Freedom guarantees that. The only force capable of undermining it is government. It is high time to realize that all important fact.

It is clear that we are still stuck today in the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression. Despite all the disinformation and market manipulation out there, our economic weakness has now become a top national security threat.

Did the market fail or did the government fail? If so, how? I have made my business career by asking the right questions. Are we working on the right problem? Do we have the right people? Are we close enough to the action? My strong suit is to ask questions until the bottom line is found. Are you asking yourselves these questions or taking at face value all what you’re being fed by our supposed “economic and market gurus” out there?

I believe even the most well-meaning government policies have unintended consequences that have harmed the economy. If government policies were held accountable the way private businesses are, the scoreboard would say government is failing to help people. What do you say?

In my humble opinion, there are few problems in the world that economic prosperity cannot help solve. Yet the engines of that prosperity are under fierce attack. The forces that seek power over others have gained the upper hand against those that seek freedom. By harming wealth creation, they cause even more strain on society. Historically, this is nothing new. State domination over its subjects has roots that connect statism, totalitarianism, communism, and socialism to more modern-day variants of liberalism and progressivism. It is a constant fight and we must win.

It is a fact that the forces against wealth creation accelerate when the Progressives are in power. More recently, they forced “Obamacare” and “Dodd Frankenstein Financial Deform” upon us. We now face a perfect storm. One only needs to observe the unrest across the world to imagine what life will become here if we don’t get our economy turned around very soon.

But how? It is not as though people lose sight of simple principles in a complex society as much as it is a Progressive tactic to confuse people. For example, if the world consists of two farmers, and one is paid government benefits, who pays? Exactly. The other farmer pays. Redistribution is a negative-sum game, and people understand that. In another example, if one farmer raises cattle and the other grows vegetables, they are both better off through voluntary trade. Making other people better off is the only way to satisfy your needs. Is it bad that some people make many people better off? Do you deserve a special attack by government if you make millions of people better off? Voluntary exchange is a positive-sum game.

After all, trade and wealth creation is not all upside. It is failure, too. Failure is a necessary component to growth and success. Babe Ruth struck out 1,330 times but also hit 714 home runs. We need to let failing entities fail. Only then will successful people turn these enterprises back into wealth-creating vehicles again. “Too big to fail” is a concept that perpetuates failure and saps vitality from the rest of the wealth creators to do so.

Bottom Line: Wealth creation is not a business suited to those whose skill set consists of voting “present.” It requires decision making, risk taking, hard information, discipline, insight, and intelligence.

We have clearly gotten away from the 10th Amendment. The only equal outcome for all that can be achieved by the federal government is misery for all. It is not that people shouldn’t be helped. It is that in most cases, it is not the role of the federal government to do so.

After all is said and done, in whose hands should you place your trust for improving the economy? An entrepreneur, whose job it is to solve problems for a profit? Or a bureaucrat, whose job it is to cause problems for a profit? I know where I put my trust, and I’m sure 90 percent of us agree.

We outnumber them, so let’s act like it. After all, the American Dream isn’t a house, or any property, or the consumption of any good. It is to be productive creating wealth.

It is real sad that the very people whose policies unleashed the attacks on our economic foundation are today waging a full-blown assault on the true wellspring of business formation, innovation, and job creation: the wealth creators.

When you see how the Washington–Wall Street corridor, which I call the “Chaos Industry”, profits at the expense of average Americans, what are you waiting for to take action?

The turnaround must come from outside of the Washington establishment. It must come from us.

Battle lines have been drawn. On one side of the battle are the fakers and takers. On the other side, all of the wealth creators. Who offers you more opportunity?

The Founding Fathers did their job. I strongly believe we must be the “Defending Fathers”. What do you say?

One of my favorite political lines on the campaign trail comes from former U.S. Senator Everett Dirksen. He once said, “When they feel the heat, they will see the light.”

Share your thoughts….

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Stop Procrastinating and Find a Reason to be Rich

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I believe each one of us has a financial genius in him/her that is asleep and just waiting to be awakened. It lies asleep because our culture has educated us into believing the wrong things about money. We’re taught to be employees and work for money rather than to be entrepreneurs and investors and have money work for us. We’re taught to not worry about our financial future because our company or the government will do that for us.

I also believe the best revenge against liberals and corporate bosses idiots is “obscene wealth”.

The message about money we’re taught from a young age is work hard, earn money, spend it, and when we run short, borrow some more. Unfortunately, 90 percent of the Western world subscribes to the above dogma, simply because it’s easier to find a job and work for money than to make your own way and build your own wealth.

But to those who want to buck the trend, I have 10 ways to awaken your financial genius which I’ll share with you over the next couple months.

The first is Find a Reason.

If you ask most people if they want to be rich, they say “yes.” But then reality sets in. They realize it’s a lot of work to become rich. There is no getting rich quick. Facing these obstacles, they throw in the towel and take the easy route—getting a job and handing investments over to a pathetic broker.

Yet, there are clearly those in life who don’t take the easy route. And there are those who are wildly successful where others aren’t. What separates the successful from the unsuccessful? The answer is found in a reason.

A reason is simply a combination of “wants” and “don’t wants.” My reason for getting rich began with my “don’t wants,” which defined my “wants.”

I don’t want to work all my life. I don’t want what my parents aspired for, job security and a house in the suburbs. I don’t like being an employee. I don’t want to be emotionally absent from my family and friends because I’m always working to make ends meet. I don’t want to have nothing to pass on at the end of my life.

Out of these “don’t wants,” I developed my “wants.”

I want to be free to travel the world and live the lifestyle I love. I want to be young when I do this. I want to be free financially. I want control over my time and my life. I want money to work for me. I want to be a “master of the universe” and say whatever I please to anyone without fear of being fired or looked upon as an outcast. Well, money is the only way to get me there and insulates me from all the dependence crap out there.

Personally, I’ve faced many setbacks in my road to riches. I’ve lost a lot of money and seen many deals fall through. I wanted to be financially free by age 30, but it took me until I was 34, with many learning experience along the way. But through it all, my reasons pulled me through.

Today is the day to determine your reason for getting rich. Make a list of your “Don’t wants” and your “wants.” Make sure that your reason is strong and determined. If you find the right reason, I promise you that you will find a way to get real wealthy But it all starts with you.

Stay tuned to my 9 other ways over the next few months… In the meantime, share your thoughts

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It is all about Money and the Media Stupid Wake up

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Seventeen years ago, I read a book called The Evolving Self. Though I didn’t realize it at the time, it profoundly affected the direction of my life.

Since reading that book, I have dedicated my life to coming ever closer to getting a glimpse of the universal order, and of our part in it.

After years of research and analysis, I’ve come to the conclusion that we, in fact, live in a neo-feudal society built on debt and mental slavery.

That may sound like over-the-top rhetoric, and it obviously sounds extreme to propagandized and conditioned minds, and yes, it is extreme. However, it is the unfortunate reality of the present situation. The facts are there for the rational and unbiased mind to absorb and comprehend.

Let’s start by giving some context and perspective on present circumstances by breaking down some economic data. As Thomas Jefferson once said, “Enlighten the people generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like evil spirits at the dawn of day.”

For the past 35 years, with technological advancements, there has been an explosion in production and profits, in wealth creation. That unprecedented increase in wealth, as many of you know, has gone to the top economic 1%. Most of it, the lion’s share of it, went to not even the top economic 1%, but to the top one-hundredth of one percent, to the modern day aristocracy.

After analyzing the most recent data, here’s the headline: US millionaire households now have $50 trillion in wealth. They have $39 trillion in legally accounted for wealth, and an estimate of $11trillion hidden in offshore accounts.

Most people cannot even comprehend how much $1 trillion is, let alone $50 trillion.

Only one-tenth of one percent of the population makes one million dollars a year, and, again, most of that wealth is in the top one-hundredth of one percent.

To show how consolidated the wealth is, even in the upper most portion of the top one percentile, the richest 400 people have as much wealth as 185 million Americans combined; that’s only 400 people with as much wealth as 60% of the entire US population.

Before continuing, let me defuse the reactionary propagandized mind’s instinctive response. This is not about demonizing people just because they have money. I am a wealth creator and I have the highest respect for them. There are in fact many people who are using their wealth and resources to improve the human condition. It’s important to understand that the focus here is not on the people who have a mere $10 million or so in wealth. When discussing the modern day aristocracy, the main focus is on the pathological, shortsighted and greed-addicted forces that are doing much more to limit human potential than enhance it.

Broadly speaking, the “aristocracy” is composed of governments, political parties, policy groups, think tanks, intel factions, private military companies, large global corporations, banks and media empires. Included in that are mega-wealthy billionaires and CEOs who have unprecedented control of wealth and resources. For example, the Business Roundtable, the people who run the 147 inter-connected corporations who control half of the world economy.

However, the ultimate point here is to show people that there is presently more than enough wealth and capabilities to solve societal problems. We can truly evolve society in unprecedented fashion. At this point, there is an overwhelming majority of the population, even a majority of the mega-wealthy, who realize that our present systems are obsolete, unsustainable and unstable. We don’t need to spend our finite time and energy fighting with each other. We already have a critical mass of aware citizens, we just need to inspire and organize them to build the cultural and political will. Once we do that, we will be an unstoppable force.

Let’s get back to that 50 trillion number, because we have had an entire generation of mind-blowing wealth creation that has been systematically withheld from the population.

Can you comprehend how much money $50 trillion is? Just to give a little context, we can end world hunger and provide clean drinking water to everyone on the planet for an estimated $40 billion. Again, one trillion is one thousand billion, and we are talking about $50 trillion.

Imagine what could be done with that amount of wealth. Imagine the implications, the possibilities. Imagine how we could evolve society, to the benefit of everyone, with modern technology and just a fraction of that staggering amount of wealth.

The average American cannot comprehend how much wealth there is because there is no frame of reference, no comparison of scale or historical precedent. If Americans had an understanding of how much wealth is being kept from them and the possibilities of what we could do with that wealth, we would have a full-blown societal evolution right now.

It is the denial of wealth that keeps you in check; it keeps you in debt.

Just at the point when technological advancement, production, distribution and wealth increases should have made everyone’s life much easier, just when basic necessities should have become much more affordable and easier to obtain, they became more expensive.

The cost of production dropped dramatically and efficiency of distribution skyrocketed. Housing, food, health and education costs should have plummeted dramatically. However, most basic necessities now come at a much higher price, and people are forced to take on increasing levels of debt to keep up. As most people are aware, student debt, consumer debt, medical debt and household debt have reached all-time record highs.
As an old wise person once said, “There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.”

We live in a neo-feudal system of debt slavery. The indentured servant is now the indebted consumer.

When you understand the wealth at hand, you begin to grasp the crime against humanity that is afoot. We live in the richest, most technologically advanced society humanity has ever known. Yet, here we are, in the 21st century, with an all-time record number of Americans living in poverty.

After careful consideration, it must be said that this is not only the greatest theft of wealth in history; it is also the greatest crime against humanity in history.

People can’t afford to pay their medical bills. Millions upon millions of American families have lost their homes, and millions more are on the verge of losing their homes. An all-time record number of children are going hungry. Meanwhile, record-breaking profits and record-breaking bonuses for the bailed out banana republic aristocracy.
Now that you are beginning to grasp the wealth at hand, and the possibilities of how that wealth can be used to evolve society, let’s take a look at how we got into this situation and how exactly it is that they got away with hoarding so much wealth.

To paraphrase a man who fought against the aristocracy, ‘The depravity and amount of suffering required for the accumulation of such a staggering magnitude of wealth, in the hands of a few, is kept out of the picture, out of the mass media, and it is not easy to make people see or understand this.’ Especially when you have an all-encompassing mainstream media propaganda system.

It is a fact that the  mainstream media is the most effective weapon of mass oppression humanity has ever known.

Since the early 1900’s and World War I, a massive propaganda system has been in place. This is not a conspiracy theory; it is all well documented. Research Edward Bernays, Walter Lippman, Ivy Lee, George Creel and the Committee on Public Information for starters. In fact, you don’t even need a conspiracy theory; you just need a basic understanding of propaganda, social psychology and behaviorism .
Speaking from personal experience, I have come to realize that even the most independent minded among us vastly underestimates how mentally conditioned we all are. Most people are no more consciously aware of this mental domination than they are aware of gravity. It’s like the air we breathe.

For two obvious examples, let’s start with television consumption and advertising. The average American watches more than five hours of TV a day, every single day of their life. American children view more than 40,000 per year, every single year of their life. Think about that. That’s intensive mental domination administered on a daily basis, from the cradle to the grave.

I guess it’s what advertisers have known all along: if we just keep the exposure rate up, people will be influenced. It’s all about repetition.

Repetitive messages fill our mental atmosphere. To paraphrase Philip Lesley in Managing the Human Climate, ‘When a message appears all around you, you tend to accept it and take it for granted. You find yourself surrounded by it and your subconscious mind absorbs and becomes immersed in the climate of repetitive ideas.’ They form the origins of your thoughts. It’s where your desires, opinions and perspectives are born.

Well, the mainstream mass media is the software on which our minds run; it’s our operating system. It’s an extension of our nervous system. Repetitive mainstream propaganda creates a belief system, popular reference points, symbols, archetypes, mental patterns, a mindset and groupthink, all based on repetition – and groupthink is a highly contagious infectious disease.

It’s hard to escape groupthink. As with freedom and democracy, you must be ever vigilant to avoid the tyranny of groupthink and cultural conditioning.

Malcolm X said it best, “The media’s the most powerful entity on earth. They have the power to make the innocent guilty and to make the guilty innocent, and that’s power. Because they control the minds of the masses.”

The mainstream media keeps everyone isolated inside a false reality, a pseudo mental environment. People are trapped in a bubble of status quo supporting reality, in a bubble of what’s good for shortsighted, short-term corporate interests.

People’s consciousness and awareness gets conditioned and contracted, they become isolated and detached from wider reality.

People are born and raised inside mass media created illusions. The majority must resign itself to the consumption of fantasy. Illusions of wealth are sold to the poor, illusions of freedom to the oppressed, dreams of victory to the defeated and of power to the weak.

The censorship that is most prevalent today is the most dangerous form. Not censorship of explicit words, sex or violence, but censorship of any thoughts outside of shortsighted corporate ideology. Any thoughts that lead to critical thought on the established power structure or veer outside of the spectrum of status quo supporting opinion are left out of the debate, out of mainstream public consciousness.

The mainstream press does not cover the most vital social, economic and political issues. The more important something is, the less they report on it. If mentioned at all, it’s mentioned in passing, with little, if any, in-depth reporting, discussion and debate on it.

It’s censorship by omission and bullshit on repetition.

Imagine wall-to-wall 24/7 news coverage of the trillions of dollars in fraudulent activity that got us into this mess. Imagine in-depth coverage of the corruption of our political process through a system of bribery that makes the mafia look like amateurs.

What about the staggering consolidation of wealth? Imagine if the media kept discussing how a small percentage of the population has 50 trillion dollars, then they started debating how we could use just a fraction of that money to solve problems, create solutions and evolve society.

What if they reported on all the wealth and resources that a small number of corporations control, then debated how that wealth and those resources could be redeployed to get us onto a sustainable and thriving path?

When you understand what is possible, you see how truly corrupt, shortsighted, ignorant and obsolete our system of rule is. You then realize that our mainstream media system is pure propaganda.

When you see the reality that they don’t tell you about, it becomes all too clear. If you were to just look at what they don’t tell you, you would see. Mainstream media is the most effective weapon of mass oppression humanity has ever known. It’s hard to break free, when you are always told you are free.

As Huxley put it in Brave New World Revisited, “The victim of mind-manipulation does not know that they are a victim. To them, the walls of their prison are invisible, and they believe they are free.”

You can’t break free until you see the walls. The whips and chains have evolved into TVs and radios. Propaganda is to democracy what violence is to dictatorships. If television was around in the 1770s, we would still be living under British rule.

In the land of propaganda, tyranny is democracy. It’s “enlightened despotism.” When it comes to oppression, it’s all cyclical yet evolutionary. Most people live in a mental cage now, they toil on mentally conditioned plantations.

In revisiting the reactionary propagandized mind, when you confront a member of the consumer cult and expose their mental conditioning processes, the false reality and illusions that people are trapped in, they will instinctively dismiss or attack you. People will bite your hand when you try to remove the mental leash from their neck.

Anything that deviates from the conditioned norm is ridiculed and instantly, instinctively dismissed before critical thinking skills are activated. The repetitious conditioning process leads to an amputation of critical thinking faculties. That which people are not familiar with becomes odd, evil and damaging to their mental construct, to their thought patterns, to their fabricated self-image.

For instance, we tend to look for anything that confirms our pre-existing beliefs while ignoring anything that goes against them. This is how confirmation bias works, to paraphrase Bertrand Russell: ‘If people are offered a fact which goes against their instincts or their cultural programming, they will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, they are offered something which falls in accordance to their cultural programming, in accordance to their conditioning, they will accept it, even on the slightest evidence.’

No one wants to believe that they have been manipulated or taken advantage of. This will stir up an instinctive dismissal, a powerful emotional response. We are creatures of habit, and it is much easier, over the short-term, to just stay on a path of denial and ignorance. Hear no evil. See no evil.

So what are we to do?

I believe the task upon us is to consciously counter conditioned consciousness. The most difficult and important prerequisite to freedom is the ability to see past all of your culturally programmed biases. It takes great personal inner-strength and determination to achieve this; you will inevitably have to face many facts that will go against your programmed, conditioned beliefs. If one can endure this, one will eventually come to experience true freedom.

However, even if one is strong enough to have an awareness of their conditioning, it is another level to confront and transcend it. As Nietzsche said, “Even the most courageous among us only rarely has the courage for that which they really know.”

The big question becomes: Are you brave enough to see? Do you want to change it?

Most Americans are aware of the fact that we are on a disastrous path. However, many of us feel powerless to change things. These feelings are only a result of our conditioning and induced delusion. We have become so propagandized that many of us do not realize the significant position that we are in. We are not poor people trapped in a third world existence. We are a mass of people who have the power to evolve society and change the course of history.

It is stunning to hear all these people, so many people saying that they can’t do anything about it. Far too many people think that we can’t create change; that is why we don’t.

Why do you think that we can’t change the world? How did you come to that conclusion? Who taught you to believe that?

The overwhelming majority feels powerless to create political change. If they would just realize that they are the overwhelming majority, they would no longer feel this way.

Thanks to the Internet, to the cyberspace underground railroad, people are now freeing their minds from conditioning and entrenched power censors. The Internet is to our generation what pamphlets were to our forefathers’ generation during the first American Revolution. People are going to the Internet to find out all the information that the corporate mainstream media is not letting people know about. As a result, we now have a critical mass of informed and outraged citizens who are also using the Internet to organize. They are now transcending conditioned consciousness and expanding their awareness on a scale unprecedented in human history.

The inevitable demise of our current neo-feudal system was summed up by George Orwell when he said, “For if leisure and security were enjoyed by all alike, the great mass of human beings who are normally stupefied by poverty would become literate and would learn to think for themselves; and when once they had done this, they would sooner or later realize that the privileged minority had no function, and they would sweep it away. In the long run, a hierarchical society was only possible on a basis of poverty and ignorance.”

If you are still wondering if we can truly create change, consider this simple truth from Strobe Talbott, “All countries are basically social arrangements, accommodations to changing circumstances. No matter how permanent and even sacred they may seem at any one time, in fact they are all artificial and temporary.”

People are the world over throwing off their mental shackles and are realizing their potential…. You can’t stop it no matter what…. you wait and see what’s coming.

Share your thoughts.

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Why do we still listen Economists when Vast Majority Forecasting Wrong?

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I have always been appalled with highly paid Ivy League economists and central bankers who sit in their Ivory Tower and pontificate what they think will happen to the economy…. From Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Paul Kruger down the list.

They are treated with the reverence the ancient Greeks bestowed on the Oracle of Delphi and project this aura of such smartness despite the fact that they keep erring again and again.

If they were such smart asses, why they wouldn’t be making millions and hundreds of millions of dollars building, financing and trading companies than selling us a completely empty bag of goods? …. Go figure.

It looks in fact like there’s no overestimating the hubris of both central bankers and economists….And I am not just picking in here on Bernanke but on all central bankers who think they’re infallible. The Bank of England has had by far the largest QE program relative to the size of its economy (though the Bank of Japan is about to show it a thing or two). It also has the worst forecasting track record of any bank, and the worst record on inflation.

When most people think of economic forecasts, they almost always think of recessions, while economists think of forecasting growth rates or interest rates. But the average man in the street only wants to know, “Will we be in a recession soon?” And if the economy is actually in a recession he wants to know, “When will it end?” The reason he cares is that he knows recessions mean job cuts and firings.

Let’s remind ourselves what a recession is and how economists decide that one has started. A recession is a downturn in economic activity. Normally, a recession means unemployment goes up, GDP contracts, stock prices fall, and the economy weakens. The lofty body that decides when a recession has started or ended is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. It is packed with eminent economists – all extremely smart people. Unfortunately, their pronouncements are completely unusable in real time. Their dating of recessions is authoritative and more or less accurate, but this exercise in hindsight comes long after a recession has started or ended.

To give you an idea just how late recessions are officially called, let’s look at the past three. The NBER dated the 1990-91 recession as beginning in August 1990 and ending in March 1991. It announced these facts in April 1991, by which time the recession was already over and the economy was growing again. The NBER was no faster at catching up with the recession that followed the dotcom bust. It wasn’t until June 2003 that the NBER pinpointed the start of the 2001 recession – a full 28 months after the recession ended. The NBER didn’t date the recession that started in December 2007 until exactly one year later. By that time, Lehman had gone bust, and the world was engulfed in the biggest financial cataclysm since the Great Depression.

The Federal Reserve and private economists also missed the onset of the last three US recessions – even after they had started. Let’s look quickly at each one.

Starting with the 1990-91 recession, let’s see what the head of the Federal Reserve – the man who is charged with running American monetary policy – was saying at the time. That recession started in August 1990, but one month before it began Alan Greenspan said, “In the very near term there’s little evidence that I can see to suggest the economy is tilting over [into recession].” The following month – the month the recession actually started – he continued on the same theme: “… those who argue that we are already in a recession I think are reasonably certain to be wrong.” He was just as clueless two months later, in October 1990, when he persisted, “… the economy has not yet slipped into recession.” It was only near the end of the recession that Greenspan came around to accepting that it had begun.

The Federal Reserve did no better in the dotcom bust. Let’s look at the facts. The recession started in March 2001. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Index had already fallen 50% in a full-scale bust. Even so, Chairman Greenspan declared before the Economic Club of New York on May 24, 2001, “Moreover, with all our concerns about the next several quarters, there is still, in my judgment, ample evidence that we are experiencing only a pause in the investment in a broad set of innovations that has elevated the underlying growth rate in productivity to a level significantly above that of the two decades preceding 1995.”

Charles Morris, a retired banker and financial writer, looked at a decade’s worth of forecasts by the professionals at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, the crème de la crème of academic economists. In 2000, the council raised their growth estimates just in time for the dot-com bust and the recession of 2001-02. And in a survey in March 2001, 95% of American economists said there would not be a recession. (John forecast it in September 2000 in this letter). The recession had already started that March, and the signs of contraction were evident. Industrial production had already been contracting for five months.

You would have thought that failure to forecast two recessions in a row might have sharpened the wits of the Federal Reserve, the Council of Economic Advisers, and private economists. Maybe they would have tried to improve their methods or figured out why they had failed so miserably. You would be wrong. Because along came the Great Recession, and once again they completely missed the boat.

I am afraid it looks like they are becoming more stupid than ever at every recession/crisis and we seem to never learn they are clueless and keep believing their crap more than ever.

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