FPC Blog


BREAKSIT

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That’s what I call the Brexit vote – “Breaksit.” It breaks stereotypes, it cuts across demographics, it astounds the pundits, and it breaks the unity of a pseudo-government called the European Union. It breaks preconceptions. Brexit was a rebellion by the people of England against an overbearing, uncontrollable, unaccountable socialist bureaucracy without adequate checks and balances. England will be free of this octopus with its insidious tentacles that destroy national sovereignty and upend traditional social order. I was convinced, before the vote, that England would vote to Brexit. So few of the political pundits agreed with me, but I was sure it would happen. I was also sure that the stock markets would (temporarily) tank.

For the investor, this is an extremely good buying opportunity. For the 401K and IRA owner, it is a time of confusion and stress. “How could I lose so much money in one day?” you ask. Just hold on. The market will be back. If your investments were sound, they still are sound. The companies in which you invested will survive, and will continue to prosper. If your investments were risky, they remain risky, and the companies may fail – or may succeed beyond your wildest expectations. That’s the nature of risk. I’m going to ride the roller coaster, and look for opportunities at the bottom.

England will do well. There will be a “period of adjustment” because it was linked so intimately to the European economic system, but Europe will still need English products, and England will still need European products, and so a new trade agreement will be reached. Similarly for the US: Our economy is intimately meshed with the English economy and also with the European economy. Our trade agreements with Europe will remain, and we will quickly reach new trade agreements with England. Trade and economics will return to normal.

Scotland may or may not decide to separate from the United Kingdom and re-join the European Union. Even if they do, H.M. Elizabeth II will still be Queen of Scotland. If Scotland splits, Scotland will no longer be united with England in a common government (almost federal), but Scotland will still have H.M. Elizabeth II, as Head of State for Scotland, just as Canada still has H.M. Elizabeth II as Head of State. Northern Ireland will be in a similar quandary: whether or not to leave the United Kingdom and unite with Ireland so as to be a part of the European Union. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland need to determine whether their economic systems are more tied to England’s or to Europe’s.

We all shall all wait and see what will happen. Only the Shadow knows.

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